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Jan 25, 2011

Analyst: EA Investors Betting Against Star Wars: The Old Republic

Cost, tough market, transition to free-to-play have stacked the deck against SWTOR, analyst says.

Electronic Arts is going all-in with Star Wars: The Old Republic, investing a reported $300 million in the BioWare-developed MMO and taking on all of the game's marketing, distribution, and publishing responsibilities. And according to one analyst, EA's investors are doubtful the publisher's massive bet will pay off.

In an interview with Gamasutra, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey said a number of factors are contributing to investor anxiety over Star Wars: The Old Republic. Namely, the last two MMOs EA published, Warhammer Online and All Points Bulletin, were flops; the industry's shift to a free-to-play model; and World of Warcraft's MMO market dominance.


"We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company's and industry's track record at releasing successful new MMOs," Hickey told Gamasutra.

Hickey added that "a suspected subscription pricing model versus a market that is quickly transitioning to free to play, generally modest previews of the game and elevated development expense and suspected aggressive royalty to LucasArts" mean shares of EA will continue to be weighted as investors take a cautious, wait-and-see approach with SWTOR.

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